Nigeria Stock Market Weekly Summary (Week Ending August 22, 2025)

It was a turbulent week for the Nigerian equities market, as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) slumped by -2.57%, building on last week’s loss of -0.90%. The ASI closed at 141,004.14, down from last week’s 40.17% YTD return to 36.66% now, reflecting the market-wide correction after sustained rallies earlier this year. Turnover, volume, and deal activity all contracted sharply, indicating some investor caution and profit-taking, while a select group of growth stocks bucked the trend with exceptional gains. Market breadth shows more decliners than advancers, revealing underlying weakness even as some small-to-mid cap names exploded higher.

Key Market Breadth and Activity Trends

• Market Breadth: Ratio was 0.80x (49 advancers vs 61 decliners):
  • 27.53% of stocks advanced
  • 34.27% declined
  • 38.20% were unchanged
  This is a caution signal: despite highly visible rallies in certain sectors, overall investor sentiment is subdued and breadth remains negative.
• Turnover & Volume:
  • Turnover -15.71% W/W
  • Volume -90.62% W/W
  • Number of deals decreased by -3.87%, from 148,235 to 142,708
  This sharp contraction signals widespread caution and possible short-term liquidity crunch; investors are trading less, possibly awaiting improved macro or policy clarity.
• New Highs/Lows: 13 new highs and only 1 new low show that despite overall index weakness, isolated speculators are aggressively chasing momentum in select counters.

Top Gainers and Losers (Week-to-Date)

• Gainers stand out by sector diversification: Both financials (NCR), consumer cyclicals (ENAMELWA), and industrials (AUSTINLAZ, MULTIVERSE) show leadership. Such cross-sector rallies are typical around periods of sector rotation.
• Top losers are mostly insurance-linked and ETFs: The sharp falls in MERGROWTH ETF and insurance names (WAPIC, ROYALEX, PRESTIGE) suggest sector-specific sell pressures, possibly profit-taking or rotation out due to policy headwinds.
• Notable RSI Insights: Both NCR (98.1) and ENAMELWA (98.8) also have extreme overbought RSI, suggesting an imminent pause or retracement; momentum traders should tread with care.

Market Insights & Forward-Looking Views

• Turnover contraction (Value -15.71%, Volume -90.62%) signals a risk-off mood and potential liquidity drying up. This typically precedes either a shakeout bottom or further downside as bargain hunters slowly step in.
• Advancers/Decliners Ratio: The market remains structurally weak, with more decliners. Persistent index losses despite new highs in select stocks is often a late bull market warning.
• Unusual Volumes Spotlight:
  • Large institutional flows (see below) continue to prioritize big-banks/big-caps (GTCO, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP), while retail action is relatively small-cap oriented (UBA, GTCO, MTNN).
• YTD Gainers vs WTD Gainers: Several names appear in both lists, e.g., NCR & ENAMELWA demonstrating compounded momentum and strong investor conviction. However, merger of high RSI with high weekly gains may presage near-term exhaustion in these names.
• Bullish Momentum Insights:
  • NCR (RSI: 98.06) and ENAMELWA (RSI: 98.79) are both extremely overbought (RSI>70); both show bullish MACD crossovers and 15D MA > 50D MA (strong uptrends).
  • AUSTINLAZ has a strong RSI (74.65), bullish MACD, and upward 15D/50D MA crossover — one of the hottest short-term momentum plays.
• Bearish Momentum Insights:
  • No major WTD losers with oversold RSI (<30) this week; most losers hover around RSI 47–59, indicative of ongoing but not yet exhausted downtrends.
  • MERGROWTH ETF’s volatility and negative MACD, albeit with a still neutral RSI (59.34), reflect a highly speculative ETF correcting after major runs — caution advised.
• High Dividend Yields: Several top losers (ROYAL EXCHANGE, WAPIC, PRESTIGE, CONHALLPLC) show elevated dividend yields (up to 7–8%), but are simultaneously losing ground — indicating likely value traps rather than dividend opportunities at this stage.

NGX Sector Indexes — Weekly & YTD Performance

• NGX Growth Index led performance with a +4.41% gain WTD and +49.72% YTD, highlighting rotation into riskier, high-beta growth stocks even amidst broad market pullbacks.
• Consumer Goods remains the star sector YTD (+85.61% YTD), despite minor WTD loss (-0.32%), supported by wage increases and continued inflation hedging.
• Insurance and Industrial Indices suffered most WTD (-8.97% and -8.31% respectively), reflecting sector vulnerabilities, policy drag, or profit taking after large prior rallies.
• Oil & Gas underwhelming both WTD and YTD (-12.00% YTD, -0.56% WTD), indicating continued sector headwinds.

Index Comparison — Outperformers & Laggards

• YTD outperformance: Consumer Goods +85.6%, Insurance +64.95%, Lotus Islamic +65.9%, and Growth Index +49.7%.
• Near-term correction: The sectors leading YTD (Insurance, Industrial) faced steepest WTD decline, a classical sign of mean-reversion and sector rotation — old winners are now sources of liquidity for new bets in growth and select ETF plays.
• Dividend Yield Index declines WTD despite yield chase, suggesting yield-hunters are locking in profit rather than buying dips for income.

Top Year-To-Date (YTD) and Week-To-Date (WTD) Gainers & Losers

• Notable Overlaps: NCR, ENAMELWA, and MULTIVERSE are both top YTD and WTD gainers — clear indication of persistent speculation or strong news/structural triggers for these names.
• VSPBONDETF flipped from YTD top loser to WTD top gainer — warning sign of extreme volatility or corrective bounce.

Market Activity & Trading Pattern Analysis

• Institutions dominated by volume/value despite fewer trades: 92% of total turnover controlled by institutions on just 41% of trade count – consistent with larger block trades in big-caps.
• Retail trades are numerous, but low in size/value: Over 58% by trade count but just 8% of total value, confirming that retail is active but not price-setting this week.

• Banks dominate the flows for both investors: Reflecting continued confidence in the sector, especially for core market names (GTCO, ZENITH, ACCESSCORP). This concentration implies that sentiment in these banks will strongly impact overall market mood and index action.
• Retail preferences tilt slightly more towards UBA, while institutions show particularly larger block trades in GTCO and ACCESSCORP.
• Correlation Watch: No direct overlap between the momentum winners and the most-traded stocks by volume/value, which suggests that the price surges in WTD/YTD gainers are being driven by smaller trades, speculation, or rotation – they may be vulnerable to sharp reversals if institutional appetite wanes.

Trading Suggestions & Opportunities

• Opportunities: Consider waiting for pullbacks in overbought momentum names (e.g. NCR, ENAMELWA, AUSTINLAZ) before entering. Consumer Goods and Growth sectors remain leadership spots for medium-term investors.
• Caution: Avoid value traps in insurance names just because of headline yield. Monitor banking heavyweights; sustained weakness here could trigger broader index downside. Closely watch liquidity — this week’s turnover/volume drop could foreshadow further volatility.
• Tactical: Swing traders may look for reversals in current top gainers (with very high RSI), while mean reversion strategies may target recent pronounced losers, especially if they stabilize and the macro environment improves.

Summary & Hidden Insights

1. The sharp split between speculative gains in select small/mid caps (many at new highs with extreme RSI) and the negative breadth/volume collapse points to a maturing bull cycle, with concentration risk and vulnerability to sudden sector-rotations or macro shocks.
2. Popular bank stocks are lynchpins — institutional flows are sticking to the main index drivers, while retail ‘frenzy’ is fueling outsized moves in less liquid names — beware of liquidity vacuums and unsustainable mini-bubbles.
3. The WTD/YTD outperformance of Consumer Goods & Growth, even amid market falls, flags persistent inflation-hedging and appetite for companies with pricing power.
4. With headline inflation and ongoing naira depreciation (-0.1% on the week), defensive positioning and careful selection in income/protection sectors is warranted.